Kerry will win by under 5 points. The election will be contested for two months. It won't have to go to the supreme court, but will be settled in a surprise ruling from the Federal District Court with authority over Wisconsin. The Republicans, shamed by news of their efforts to simply throw a monkey wrench into the election, will choose not to contest the outcome. Bush will disappear for a few months, then will come back into national attention in the Summer of 2005 when he serves as an informal diplomat with the Asian bloc for Kerry.
Kerry's first crisis will be a domestic problem with a major Southeast city on the verge of bankruptcy erupting in riots over housing. His adroit use of the National Guard will earn him some credibility with the disaffected right. Unemployment will continue to go up, and the first signs of a major scandal in the housing finance market will keep tensions high.
Iraq will not be the big issue everyone expects. Problems with Afghanistan and increased Palestenian problems will send Iraq into the background while Kerry tries to draw down the American presence there, and build up allies support. It will be discovered that the resistance in Iraq is coordinated through a tough, deep network of entrenched Baathists who actually had a plan for the eventuality of Hussein's capture and an American occupancy. By the end of the year, there will be a series of meetings between the Baathists and the occupiers, with a drift toward revising the history of the Baath party to make it possible for them to come back into power, sans Hussein.
A family or health crisis for Kerry in late Summer will bring Edwards into the national spotlight. Cheney's memoirs, published in late Fall, cause a sensation. Bush continues to stay in the limelight. Laura Bush starts a cable television show of her own, produced by Oprah Winfrey. It will be dedicated to the plight of American teachers, and will feature exceptional teachers, support for dynamic policy development, and lots of feel good clips about individuals who make a difference in catastrophic school systems.
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